The Norwegian solar PV market experiences a significant reduction in new projects in 2020, with installed year by year capacity down for the first time.
Though there is some interest in solar parks, and Norwegian technology developers within floating solar have testing facilities, the main segments for solar PV in Norway are industrial and commercial rooftop, and residential, and a small share of off-grid.
The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate has conducted a survey for 2020. Compared with previous years’ survey based on data from installers, this year’s survey is based on data from Elhub, Norway’s new central IT system for the energy market.
An estimated total of 40 MW has been installed in Norway in 2020, down from 51.4 MW installed in 2019.
The cumulative installed capacity of around 160 MW, of which 90 % is grid connected.
Of the around 7000 grid connected installations, 85 % are less than 15 kW, but contribute to only 1/3 of production. 1 % is more than 250 kW but contribute 1/5 of total production.
Annual installed grid-connected capacity (MW) in 2020: 40 MW
Cumulative installed grid-connected capacity (MW) in 2020: 142 MW*
Annual installed off-grid capacity (MW) in 2020: 1 MW
Cumulative installed off-grid capacity (MW) in 2020: 18 MW*
Segmentation is only available from 2019
- Residential (<15 kWp): 18.3 MW (36 %)
- Commercial (15-250 kWp): 11.8 MW (23 %)
- Industrial (>250 kWp): 18.1 MW (35 %)
- Off grid: 2.0 MW (4 %)
- BIPV: 1.1 MW (2 %)
Expected market developments for the years 2021 to 2025:
- Emergence of solar parks in several tens of MW scale
- Rise in commercial interest in agri PV in several MW scale
- Test facilities in floating solar
- Growth in shared solar systems in housing cooperatives
- Expected growth in general solar market, despite negative changes below
Relevant upcoming policy change
- Enova, the government support agency for solar and energy efficiency is reducing their support tariffs from July 1st 2021. Decline in all applied support schemes. This is an issue on the political agenda, also in relation to this fall’s parliament election (September 2021).
- The ministry of petroleum and energy have announced changes in grid tariffs from 2022, possibly resulting in less favorable incentives for solar
- There are changes announced for housing communities, allowing them to share solar PV installations more easily, and thus increase profitability. There are indications that these changes may also include commercial buildings, allowing several businesses in an office building or shopping mall to share investments and power from solar installations.
Source: The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and Solar Energy Cluster, Multiconsult, NVE.